Crystal Beale's body was found in the Brisbane River by a rower in February 2025, hours after a family dinner.
Former partner Jesse Wahlen Beale was charged seven months later with domestic violence-related murder and interfering with a corpse.
Ms Beale, a 49-year-old mother of two, was last seen alive having an argument with the accused at a restaurant and bottle shop in Brisbane's southern suburbs at 9.30pm on February 21 2025.
Beale first applied for bail in October 2025 when the court heard his ex-partner called him a "rapist" during the argument.
She had found photos on his phone of him allegedly sexually assaulting her while she was unconscious, the court was told.
At the bail application on Wednesday, defence barrister Saul Holt KC submitted new evidence by a forensic pathologist that found drowning "could not excluded" as Ms Beale's cause of death.
He said the new evidence "dramatically changes the picture" for the prosecution case.
"In a murder trial, if the cause of death is unclear, then that becomes hugely problematic for the Crown," Mr Holt said.
He said the new evidence opened up several alternative scenarios surrounding the circumstances leading to her death.
"There will be a substantial contest about the cause of death," he said.
Mr Holt said Beale was not a flight risk as the sole carer of a son with medical issues and should be bailed, with a trial unlikely to proceed until 2028.
"This is … a genuinely contestable, circumstantial case - it will be a contested trial," he said.
Crown prosecutor Dejana Kovac opposed the application, saying Ms Beale's ultimate cause of death did not have to be proven for her former partner to be convicted of the charges.
She said earlier evidence that showed Ms Beale suffered neck injuries consistent with strangulation were sufficient to prove her former partner's intent to kill.
Ms Kovac also pointed to earlier evidence that the accused had searched the Bureau of Meteorology website for tide times and security camera locations on the night of her disappearance.
Justice Patrick McCafferty reserved his decision until Thursday.
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