In its Global beef quarterly Q1 2026, the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division says China began implementing the three-year import quota system on January 1 this year as part of its safeguard measures following a year-long investigation into the impact of rising imports on domestic Chinese cattle producers.
RaboResearch says, as the world’s largest beef importer, China’s policy is expected to reshape global trade flows and increase market volatility.
Imports accounted for 25 per cent of total Chinese beef supply in 2025.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird says – with the total quota for Chinese beef exports set at 2.688 million tonnes for 2026, this is 4 per cent lower than 2025 volumes.
Even so, the report says, a number of exporting countries – including the US, Uruguay and New Zealand – are still not expected to reach their quota limits.
For Australia – along with Brazil, China’s largest supplier – the quotas are expected to be reached, after which volumes will be subject to an additional 55 per cent tariffs on top of in-quota import duties.
And RaboResearch believes out-of-quota shipments will be unlikely at these rates.
“With the new quota limiting Australian exports to China to just 205,000 million tonnes in 2026, it will potentially mean the diversion of about 100,000 million tonnes of Australian beef to alternative markets,” Angus says.
“RaboResearch is expecting Australia’s 2026 beef production volumes will be similar to 2025’s historically-high levels – and therefore export volumes to be similar.
“And these high Australian volumes will need to find other markets,” he says.
As new markets, Angus explains, “a large proportion” (55 per cent) of Australia’s exports to China were grainfed beef, with predominant cuts of manufacturing, brisket and shin/shank, and diverting these cuts to other markets at a comparable price point “may be challenging”.
Exports to South Korea were at record volumes in 2025 and Japanese demand has been relatively stagnant recently, he says.
The US, with stronger import demand, would appear an option, the report says, but the bulk of this trade is lean trim beef – a key ingredient of hamburger patties.
In addition, Angus says, Australia’s volumes to the US were at record levels in 2025 and they will also face increased competition from Brazilian product in 2026.
“Distributing Australian product across a range of markets – most likely through Southeast Asia – appears to be the best solution,” he says.
“But based on 2025 volumes, Australia will be relying on an expansion of markets to accommodate additional volumes.”
While Australia’s beef industry is working to minimise the impact of the new Chinese quota system, RaboResearch expects there will be some jostling for business by importers and exporters as they manage the more limited trade line.
Weekly slaughter numbers for the first four weeks of the year were the same as 2025 volumes and – with high current cattle inventory – RaboResearch expects they will continue in line with 2025 volumes at least through Q1 and most likely into Q2.
“Some weather forecasts are suggesting conditions could get drier in Q2 and, if this was to occur, we expect to see a lift in slaughter numbers and a softening in prices,” Angus says.
“The rate of any change will be contingent on any change in producer confidence.
“A similar situation occurred in 2023 and, with the severe drop in producer confidence, cattle prices dropped dramatically.
“However, global markets remain strong and prices for heavy finished cattle and cows remain at historically high levels, which may support confidence levels. Prices for younger stock are closer to the five-year average, reflecting a more balanced situation in the producer side of the market with no strong restocking or destocking activity.”
