The 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook draws on the latest scientific evidence from the 2025 Sustainable Yields project, providing a critical input to the basin plan review to be completed in 2026.
The 2025 Sustainable Yields project was delivered with contributions from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency. It leverages significant advancements in climate science and modelling capabilities to underpin the three future climate scenarios explored in the 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook.
“This isn’t a story of decline — it’s a call to keep preparing, adapting and transitioning,” MDBA chief executive Andrew McConville said.
“Basin communities and industries have been adapting to our changing climate for many years, the basin plan gives us a foundation for doing exactly that.”
The 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook draws upon the three plausible climate futures presented in the 2025 Sustainable Yields project to project basin outcomes to 2050:
- Hotter and slightly wetter – increased rainfall in warmer months could improve runoff in some regions but still bring more intense rainfall events and water quality challenges.
- Hotter and drier – this is the most likely direction of change in the basin’s hydroclimate.
- Hotter and much drier – rainfall and runoff decrease sharply, placing greater pressure on water availability, ecosystems and communities.
Under all scenarios, the basin will experience higher temperatures and greater variability.
The southern basin is likely to see the largest declines in cool-season rainfall and runoff, while the northern basin will experience stronger swings between dry and wet periods.
The 2025 Murray-Darling Basin Outlook provides critical information to help governments, communities and industries plan for transition.
“The basin plan has already helped us weather some of the toughest climate extremes,” Mr McConville said.
“During the Tinderbox Drought, it was water for the environment that filled critically important waterholes in the northern basin and, as a result, also provided water security in some remote communities.
“The Basin Outlook shows managing water for different values and needs will become more complex in the future.
“Basin communities have overcome the challenges of our extreme weather in the past, and when pulling in the same direction, we can all do difficult things together.”
The Review Discussion Paper will be released in early 2026, followed by a 12-week consultation period and call for submissions.
The MDBA will release the Review Report, which will have findings and recommendations for governments to consider, in late 2026.
The full 2025 Murray–Darling Basin Outlook report, including detailed findings and methodology, as well as the 2025 Sustainable Yields project report are available at mdba.gov.au
