Major water storages are at their lowest level in six years, meaning opening allocations are expected to be low for the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems.
The Resource Manager for northern Victoria recently released the first outlook for 2026-27.
Northern Victorian Resource Manager Mark Bailey said seasonal determinations against high-reliability water shares in the 2026-27 water year would depend heavily on weather and catchment conditions during winter and spring and the amount of carried over unused allocation.
“After consecutive years of below-average inflows, the storages are at their lowest levels since 2020,” Dr Bailey said.
“Resources for 2026-27 system operating requirements are secure in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems.
“However, reserves for seasonal determinations are not as large as recent years.
“Inflows into the southern Murray catchments and the Goulburn system this water year have been slightly better than the dry outlook scenario.
“A repeat of these inflows in 2026-27 would result in seasonal determinations of about 75 per cent in the Murray system and 50 per cent in the Goulburn by mid-February 2027.
“Early season announcements in the Broken and Bullarook systems will be influenced by the volumes carried over and the catchment conditions. Each system is likely to start at zero per cent HRWS.
“As annual systems, the seasonal determinations in the Broken and Bullarook systems rely on catchment conditions and the volume of carried over allocation.
“Inflow conditions during 2026-27 will determine how seasonal determinations change during the year.
“A return to average inflow conditions should allow seasonal determinations to reach 100 per cent HRWS by mid-December 2026 in all systems,” Dr Bailey said.
“The risk of spill in the Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe systems at the start of 2026-27 will depend on how much water is released from the storages in the next few months.
“The risk of spill in the Murray system is expected to be about 35 per cent at the start of July 2026.
“In the Goulburn system, the risk is currently close to 10 per cent, and 30 per cent in the Campaspe system.
“Customers in these systems should factor the risk of spill into their plans for the remaining months of 2025-26,” he said.
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