In an alarming sign for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the coalmining seat of Hunter that the party has held since 1910, is projected to flip to the coalition at the election which is due to be held by May 17, according to fresh modelling released by pollster YouGov.
The seat is among a number of strongholds Labor is predicted to lose including Gough Whitlam's old seat of Werriwa in western Sydney, bellwether Robertson in NSW's Hunter region and McEwen in Melbourne's outer north.
Labor would lose 15 seats altogether if the modelling is replicated at the election, giving the coalition a 72-66 seat edge over the government and placing Peter Dutton in the box seat to become prime minister.
Two government ministers would lose their seats, Pat Conroy in Shortland and Kristy McBain in Eden-Monaro. Parliament is also at risk of losing its only former dolphin trainer, with Sam Lim predicted to succumb to a 4.9 per cent swing in the Perth seat of Tangney.
If Mr Dutton does boot Labor to the opposition benches, it would be the first time since 1931 that a federal government has lost power after a single term.
Mr Dutton said that fact made the coalition the underdogs.
"But to counter that, in the Albanese government we've got the worst government since 1931, so people are ready for a change, and people do want to get their lives and their country back on track," he told reporters in Darwin on Sunday.
"We need a safe society, and we need a prosperous society so families can afford to put a roof over their head and put their kids through school, put food on the table, and that back-to-basics approach is exactly what we offer."
But one thing Mr Dutton won't be supporting is electricity subsidies for Australian families, ruling out an extension to the government's energy bill payments because he claims they are contributing to inflation.
Housing Minister Clare O'Neil said that showed his hypocrisy "knows no bounds".
"Every opportunity, we're finding ways to try to provide assistance to people, and in almost every instance, Peter Dutton has stood in our path," she told Sky News.
YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said seats in outer suburban Sydney and Melbourne were most at risk for Labor, with voters focused on who could provide better wages, more affordable housing and more Medicare bulk billing.
"What's very clear is that after this poll, the election is no longer a referendum on the government, but a choice between who will deliver best for working people," he told ABC TV.
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