AAP Finance

Optimism may help buoy Australian market

By AAP Newswire

The Australian share market is expected to make a slight rebound on Monday with some investor optimism carrying over into a new week of trading.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished Friday down 0.04 per cent and the broader All Ordinaries edged down or 0.05 per cent, but the market was still ahead for the week.

On Wall Street although the Dow Jones Industrial Average index ended Friday trading little changed, the broader S&P 500 gained nearly 0.3 per cent and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite improved 0.5 per cent.

AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver said the US market managed to end in positive territory despite President Donald Trump saying he hadn't agreed to a rollback of US tariffs as part of trade talks with China.

That helped lift Australian share futures 27 points, a gain of about 0.4 per cent.

"So after a slightly down day on Friday it looks like we're going to have a bit of rebound at the opening tomorrow morning," Dr Oliver told AAP.

He said global markets were still showing optimism after the US market rose 0.8 per cent last week, having recorded a new record high, with European markets gaining 1.9 per cent, Japan 2.4 per cent and China 2.5 per cent last week.

"So there's a degree of optimism around that the world's not going to go into recession after all and that global growth might pick up," he said.

Looking at local economic indicators coming up this week, Dr Oliver expects NAB's business survey on Tuesday to show confidence remaining subdued and the Westpac/MI consumer survey on Wednesday to show continued softness.

Most interest would be on Wednesday's wages figures with weak growth leading to poor consumer spending.

"The unfortunate news is that wages growth is probably going to remain fairly weak. We're looking at 0.5 per cent for the September quarter and that would leave wages growth over the last 12 months at just 2.2 per cent," Dr Oliver said.

Thursday's job figures for October were likely to show a modest rise in employment but probably not enough to stop unemployment rising slightly. AMP Capital is picking the jobless figure to rise to 5.3 per cent from 5.2 per cent.

The main global economic indicators this week will be US inflation and retail figures, and Chinese industrial production, retail sales and investment data